Business Pulse Vietnam: High-Tech Investments, Rising Capital Markets and Shifting Global Demand

B2B Asia News Business Pulse provides an overview of the main business developments, industrial shifts and regulatory updates defining the current economic landscape in key markets driving regional growth.

We begin our series with a focus on Vietnam, a nation which finds itself balancing a record-breaking stock market rally and ambitious industrial greening, with the pressures of shifting regional trade competition.

A Shift Toward High-Tech Industry

Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) has set a benchmark to attract USD 4.25 billion in investment for its export processing zones and industrial parks in 2026. The HCMC Export Processing and Industrial Zones Authority (HEPZA) has stated it aims to push for an average investment intensity of USD 8–10 million per hectare, while departing from traditional labour-intensive models in favor of high-tech, green development.

Further up north in the central highlands, Gia Lai provincial authorities have reportedly registered 12 new investment projects worth more than USD 846 million in the first nine days of 2026, with industry and renewable energy projects dominating investment inflows.

Export Performance: Record Highs Meet Regional Competition

Vietnam’s 2025 trade data reveals some level of disparity in its export economy. While some industrial and high-value commodities are surging, certain traditional agricultural staples are facing high competition from regional neighbours.

Record Highs: Wood and Cashews

Exports of wood and wood products surpassed the USD 17 billion threshold for the first time, marking an increase of almost 6 per cent compared to 2024. The United States, Japan, and China accounted for nearly 80 per cent of the total wood and wood product export value.

Vietnam's cashew export value propelled to USD 5.2 billion in 2025, the highest level ever recorded. Cashews were Vietnam’s third-largest agricultural export in 2025, behind only coffee (USD 8.57 billion) and fruits and vegetables (USD 8.56 billion). 

This is a significant statistic for Cambodia as well, since Vietnam remains Cambodia’s largest market for raw cashew nuts. According to the Cashew Nut Association of Cambodia, the Kingdom exported more than 1 million tonnes of raw cashew nuts in 2025, with the largest share exported to Vietnam.

Agricultural Challenges: Rice and Dragon Fruit

The data has been less optimistic for traditional staples. Vietnam exported over 8.06 million tonnes of rice to international markets in 2025, earning over USD 4.1 billion. This represented a year-on-year decline of 10.8 per cent in volume, and 27.6 per cent in value, further exacerbated by a global downturn in rice prices.

In contrast, Cambodia’s rice exports—though much lower in volume compared to Vietnam—saw a 45 per cent year-on-year increase to over 940,000 tonnes in 2025. The exports generated USD 602 million in revenue, up 22.6 per cent from USD 491 million recorded in the previous year.

Vietnam's dragon fruit exports hit an 11-year low as China—Vietnam’s largest buyer—successfully expanded its own domestic cultivation to 1.6 million tonnes.

According to Vietnam Customs, exports in the first 11 months of 2025 fell 0.8 per cent to USD 485.2 million, the lowest recorded since 2014. This decline is attributed to aggressive production spikes in China and India, significantly reducing Vietnam’s former dominance in the regional market.

Plans to Boost Trade Surplus in 2026 

Vietnam’s Agency of Foreign Trade, under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, aims to boost trade surplus by 15 per cent to USD 23 billion in 2026, including a target to increase exports by 8 per cent.

To meet these goals, the Agency of Foreign Trade has stated it will continue refining the legal framework governing import-export activities, gathering feedback to propose amendments, supplements or replacements for outdated circulars, and reviewing other commitments related to textiles and garments and meeting EU regulations to ensure the strength of existing export industries. 

Capital Markets: VN-Index Kicks Off 2026 at Record Highs

The domestic stock market began the year with record-breaking momentum. The VN-Index closed the week at 1,867.9 points, buoyed by significant capital inflows into the banking and oil sectors.

Viet Dragon Securities Co. (VDSC) suggests the market is shifting from "index-expensive" to "broadly attractive," projecting a target range of 1,712–2,032 points over the next 14 months. 

However, analysts warn of short-term volatility stemming from:

• Geopolitical uncertainties
• Profit-taking pressures at record highs
• The potential for delayed rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Real Estate: Transitioning to a New Growth Cycle

Following a decade-defining downturn, Vietnam’s property market is repositioning for a "substantive" recovery. A sweeping overhaul of land and housing laws is expected to unlock stalled projects valued at approximately USD 95 billion.

Market Outlook (2026-2028):

• Supply: CBRE Vietnam projects over 33,000 new apartments per year.
• Strategy: Experts advise a shift from "quick-flip" speculation to medium- and long-term investment.
• Focus: Transparency, legal compliance, and real demand are expected to be the primary drivers of the new cycle.